Playoff projections for 3A through A-I based on new GHSA ranking formula

The GHSA is using a ranking formula to help select and seed playoff teams for classes 3A, 2A and A Division I this season.

Below are how those seeds and selections will play out, according to the computer Maxwell Ratings.

In simple terms, the GHSA’s Post Season Ranking Formula (PSRF) multiplies a team’s winning percentage with that of its opponents and that of its opponents’ opponents to generate a rating between 1 and 0.

Using the PSRF, the GHSA will seed region winners first, then region runners-up. Third- and fourth-place finishers are guaranteed playoff berths but will be seeded purely on PSRF with any playoff qualifiers that finish outside the top four.

The seedings below include each team’s projected final PSRF and region finish in 10 weeks. The lines indicate the borders between region winners, runners-up and the rest.

The impetus for using this system was the GHSA's decision to have private Class 3A-A schools play for their own state championship. That made it impossible to seed and select the traditional way, which was to take the top four finishers from each of eight regions.

The GHSA on Monday published its first team rankings using the PSRF, with further explanation on how it works. They can be found here.

The projections below show how those ratings might evolve and take shape for the playoffs.

Class 3A

1. Jefferson (PSRF: .684 / Reg. finish: 1)

2. Sandy Creek (PSRF: .671 / Reg. finish: 1)

3. Calhoun (PSRF: .648 / Reg. finish: 1)

4. Baldwin (PSRF: .627 / Reg. finish: 1)

5. Cedar Grove (PSRF: .609 / Reg. finish: 1)

6. Bainbridge (PSRF: .562 / Reg. finish: 1)

7. Harlem (PSRF: .642 / Reg. finish: 2)

8. Monroe Area (PSRF: .632 / Reg. finish: 2)

9. Troup (PSRF: .621 / Reg. finish: 2)

10. Jenkins (PSRF: .604 / Reg. finish: 2)

11. Adairsville (PSRF: .587 / Reg. finish: 2)

12. Stephenson (PSRF: .585 / Reg. finish: 2)

13. Peach County (PSRF: .554 / Reg. finish: 2)

14. Lumpkin County (PSRF: .549 / Reg. finish: 2)

15. Mary Persons (PSRF: .609 / Reg. finish: 3)

16. Southeast Bulloch (PSRF: .601 / Reg. finish: 3)

17. Heritage-Ringgold (PSRF: .577 / Reg. finish: 4)

18. Howard (PSRF: .571 / Reg. finish: 3)

19. Long County (PSRF: .570 / Reg. finish: 4)

20. Northwest Whitfield (PSRF: .565 / Reg. finish: 3)

21. Oconee County (PSRF: .562 / Reg. finish: 3)

22. Cherokee Bluff (PSRF: .554 / Reg. finish: 4)

23. LaGrange (PSRF: .546 / Reg. finish: 4)

24. Hephzibah (PSRF: .523 / Reg. finish: 5)

25. Douglass (PSRF: .515 / Reg. finish: 3)

26. Cairo (PSRF: .513 / Reg. finish: 3)

27. Liberty County (PSRF: .499 / Reg. finish: 5)

28. Windsor Forest (PSRF: .489 / Reg. finish: 6)

29. Dawson County (PSRF: .482 / Reg. finish: 3)

30. Luella (PSRF: .467 / Reg. finish: 4)

31. White County (PSRF: .467 / Reg. finish: 4)

32. Dougherty (PSRF: .416 / Reg. finish: 4)

33. West Laurens (PSRF: .477 / Reg. finish: 6)

34. Gilmer (PSRF: .476 / Reg. finish: 5)

35. North Hall (PSRF: .475 / Reg. finish: 5)

36. Westside-Augusta (PSRF: .465 / Reg. finish: 7)

37. Spalding (PSRF: .453 / Reg. finish: 6)

38. Riverdale (PSRF: .438 / Reg. finish: 5)

39. Whitewater (PSRF: .429 / Reg. finish: 7)

40. Johnson-Savannah (PSRF: .428 / Reg. finish: 7)

41. Monroe (PSRF: .420 / Reg. finish: 5)

42. Pickens (PSRF: .416 / Reg. finish: 6)

43. East Hall (PSRF: .413 / Reg. finish: 5)

44. Upson-Lee (PSRF: .410 / Reg. finish: 8)

45. Westover (PSRF: .409 / Reg. finish: 6)

46. Islands (PSRF: .389 / Reg. finish: 8)

47. Mount Zion-Jonesboro (PSRF: .382 / Reg. finish: 7)

48. Beach (PSRF: .377 / Reg. finish: 9)

49. LaFayette (PSRF: .376 / Reg. finish: 6)

50. Richmond Academy (PSRF: .375 / Reg. finish: 8)

51. Chestatee (PSRF: .372 / Reg. finish: 7)

52. Cross Creek (PSRF: .362 / Reg. finish: 9)

53. North Clayton (PSRF: .359 / Reg. finish: 6)

54. West Hall (PSRF: .340 / Reg. finish: 6)

55. Groves (PSRF: .320 / Reg. finish: 10)

56. Fayette County (PSRF: .319 / Reg. finish: 9)

57. Ridgeland (PSRF: .309 / Reg. finish: 7)

58. Johnson-Gainesville (PSRF: .260 / Reg. finish: 8)

Class 2A

1. Carver-Columbus (PSRF: .656 / Reg. finish: 1)

2. Pierce County (PSRF: .652 / Reg. finish: 1)

3. Callaway (PSRF: .631 / Reg. finish: 1)

4. Rockmart (PSRF: .621 / Reg. finish: 1)

5. Burke County (PSRF: .577 / Reg. finish: 1)

6. Columbia (PSRF: .561 / Reg. finish: 1)

7. Appling County (PSRF: .654 / Reg. finish: 2)

8. Stephens County (PSRF: .635 / Reg. finish: 2)

9. Morgan County (PSRF: .618 / Reg. finish: 2)

10. Sumter County (PSRF: .589 / Reg. finish: 2)

11. Miller Grove (PSRF: .520 / Reg. finish: 2)

12. Thomson (PSRF: .516 / Reg. finish: 2)

13. Cook (PSRF: .620 / Reg. finish: 3)

14. Westside-Macon (PSRF: .576 / Reg. finish: 3)

15. North Murray (PSRF: .561 / Reg. finish: 3)

16. Hart County (PSRF: .557 / Reg. finish: 4)

17. Laney (PSRF: .544 / Reg. finish: 3)

18. Ringgold (PSRF: .532 / Reg. finish: 4)

19. Hapeville Charter (PSRF: .528 / Reg. finish: 3)

20. Carver-Atlanta (PSRF: .524 / Reg. finish: 4)

21. Spencer (PSRF: .508 / Reg. finish: 3)

22. South Atlanta (PSRF: .491 / Reg. finish: 3)

23. Jackson (PSRF: .472 / Reg. finish: 4)

24. Union County (PSRF: .466 / Reg. finish: 5)

25. Butler (PSRF: .461 / Reg. finish: 4)

26. Hardaway (PSRF: .460 / Reg. finish: 4)

27. Shaw (PSRF: .455 / Reg. finish: 5)

28. Pike County (PSRF: .450 / Reg. finish: 5)

29. Crisp County (PSRF: .449 / Reg. finish: 4)

30. Washington (PSRF: .442 / Reg. finish: 5)

31. East Jackson (PSRF: .438 / Reg. finish: 5)

32. Redan (PSRF: .380 / Reg. finish: 4)

33. Sonoraville (PSRF: .411 / Reg. finish: 6)

34. Therrell (PSRF: .399 / Reg. finish: 6)

35. Coahulla Creek (PSRF: .387 / Reg. finish: 7)

36. Tattnall County (PSRF: .367 / Reg. finish: 5)

37. Franklin County (PSRF: .363 / Reg. finish: 6)

38. Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe (PSRF: .362 / Reg. finish: 8)

39. Rutland (PSRF: .356 / Reg. finish: 6)

40. Kendrick (PSRF: .343 / Reg. finish: 7)

41. Columbus (PSRF: .341 / Reg. finish: 6)

42. Murray County (PSRF: .341 / Reg. finish: 9)

43. KIPP Atlanta Collegiate (PSRF: .328 / Reg. finish: 7)

44. Josey (PSRF: .320 / Reg. finish: 5)

45. Salem (PSRF: .311 / Reg. finish: 5)

46. Jordan (PSRF: .297 / Reg. finish: 8)

47. Glenn Hills (PSRF: .280 / Reg. finish: 6)

Class A Division I

1. Fannin County (PSRF: .701 / Reg. finish: 1)

2. Dublin (PSRF: .677 / Reg. finish: 1)

3. Fitzgerald (PSRF: .638 / Reg. finish: 1)

4. Lamar County (PSRF: .607 / Reg. finish: 1)

5. Bremen (PSRF: .579 / Reg. finish: 1)

6. Thomasville (PSRF: .625 / Reg. finish: 2)

7. Rabun County (PSRF: .610 / Reg. finish: 2)

8. Northeast (PSRF: .609 / Reg. finish: 2)

9. Toombs County (PSRF: .596 / Reg. finish: 2)

10. Putnam County (PSRF: .507 / Reg. finish: 2)

11. Dodge County (PSRF: .604 / Reg. finish: 3)

12. Dade County (PSRF: .560 / Reg. finish: 3)

13. Bleckley County (PSRF: .559 / Reg. finish: 4)

14. Worth County (PSRF: .547 / Reg. finish: 3)

15. Jeff Davis (PSRF: .546 / Reg. finish: 4)

16. Elbert County (PSRF: .537 / Reg. finish: 3)

17. Swainsboro (PSRF: .530 / Reg. finish: 3)

18. Chattooga (PSRF: .526 / Reg. finish: 5)

19. Gordon Lee (PSRF: .517 / Reg. finish: 4)

20. Washington County (PSRF: .511 / Reg. finish: 5)

21. ACE Charter (PSRF: .503 / Reg. finish: 6)

22. Model (PSRF: .502 / Reg. finish: 3)

23. Armuchee (PSRF: .499 / Reg. finish: 6)

24. Bacon County (PSRF: .488 / Reg. finish: 5)

25. Social Circle (PSRF: .487 / Reg. finish: 3)

26. East Laurens (PSRF: .477 / Reg. finish: 7)

27. Heard County (PSRF: .467 / Reg. finish: 4)

28. Commerce (PSRF: .464 / Reg. finish: 4)

29. Vidalia (PSRF: .464 / Reg. finish: 4)

30. B.E.S.T. Academy (PSRF: .436 / Reg. finish: 7)

31. Jasper County (PSRF: .431 / Reg. finish: 4)

32. Coosa (PSRF: .431 / Reg. finish: 7)

33. Towers (PSRF: .404 / Reg. finish: 6)

34. Southwest (PSRF: .400 / Reg. finish: 8)

35. Gordon Central (PSRF: .400 / Reg. finish: 8)

36. Pepperell (PSRF: .395 / Reg. finish: 5)

37. Temple (PSRF: .380 / Reg. finish: 6)

38. Berrien (PSRF: .380 / Reg. finish: 6)

39. McNair (PSRF: .375 / Reg. finish: 5)

40. Banks County (PSRF: .366 / Reg. finish: 6)

41. Jefferson County (PSRF: .348 / Reg. finish: 9)

42. Brantley County (PSRF: .334 / Reg. finish: 7)

43. Haralson County (PSRF: .329 / Reg. finish: 7)

44. Central-Macon (PSRF: .317 / Reg. finish: 10)

45. Oglethorpe County (PSRF: .316 / Reg. finish: 7)

46. Utopian Academy (PSRF: .250 / Reg. finish: 7)

Class 3A-A private

1. Prince Avenue Christian (PSRF: .695 / Reg. finish: 1)

2. Savannah Christian (PSRF: .687 / Reg. finish: 1)

3. Calvary Day (PSRF: .670 / Reg. finish: 1)

4. Athens Academy (PSRF: .650 / Reg. finish: 1)

5. Holy Innocents’ (PSRF: .634 / Reg. finish: 1)

6. Whitefield Academy (PSRF: .632 / Reg. finish: 1)

7. Greater Atlanta Christian (PSRF: .546 / Reg. finish: 1)

8. Fellowship Christian (PSRF: .677 / Reg. finish: 2)

9. Lovett (PSRF: .633 / Reg. finish: 2)

10. Christian Heritage (PSRF: .625 / Reg. finish: 2)

11. North Cobb Christian (PSRF: .619 / Reg. finish: 2)

12. Darlington (PSRF: .530 / Reg. finish: 2)

13. Wesleyan (PSRF: .661 / Reg. finish: 3)

14. Hebron Christian (PSRF: .634 / Reg. finish: 3)

15. Mount Vernon (PSRF: .603 / Reg. finish: 5)

16. Aquinas (PSRF: .555 / Reg. finish: 4)

17. Mount Paran Christian (PSRF: .522 / Reg. finish: 4)

18. Trinity Christian (PSRF: .511 / Reg. finish: 5)

19. King's Ridge Christian (PSRF: .493 / Reg. finish: 10)

20. Mount Pisgah Christian (PSRF: .446 / Reg. finish: 6)

21. St. Francis (PSRF: .443 / Reg. finish: 9)

22. Providence Christian (PSRF: .438 / Reg. finish: 5)

23. Savannah Country Day (PSRF: .394 / Reg. finish: 5)

24. Landmark Christian (PSRF: .356 / Reg. finish: 8)

25. Walker (PSRF: .295 / Reg. finish: 11)