Road to the finals begins with 119 games this weekend
The five-round journey to Mercedes-Benz Stadium and the high school football championship games begins this weekend with 119 state playoff games.
The first round usually belongs to Goliath. In 2023, the computer Maxwell Ratings correctly predicted 110 of the 127 contests, and only six top-10 teams lost. At least three top-10 teams will go down this time because they’re matched against each other.
Those games are No. 10 Mill Creek at No. 4 Douglas County in Class 6A, No. 9 Warner Robins at No. 1 Marist in Class 4A and No. 3 Irwin County at No. 8 Greene County in Class A Division II.
Marist coach Alan Chadwick, in his 40th season, says Warner Robins might be the hardest first-round opponent he has ever faced. Both teams have reached the quarterfinals or better for seven straight seasons, each winning state championships in that time.
“If not the toughest, it’s the second-toughest,” Chadwick said. “We had one with Kell a few years ago, and they obliterated us. I’d measure this one along those lines. I am quite concerned.”
Here are some things to know about the playoffs as they commence Friday night.
*Teams to beat: The No. 1-ranked teams are Carrollton (Class 6A), Milton (5A), Marist (4A), Peach County (3A), Carver-Columbus (2A), Toombs County (A Division I), Manchester (A Division II) and Savannah Christian (3A-A private). Toombs County has never won a state title. Carrollton and Manchester have not won since the 1990s. Only Milton (2023) and Marist (2020) have won championships in the past 10 seasons.
*What’s new: Twenty-three smaller private schools are playing for their own state championship this season, not because they want that, but because public schools want that. It was an all-sports decision, but Prince Avenue Christian’s 2022-23 state finals victories over public-school Swainsboro were used as evidence of competitive imbalance. The GHSA has seeded the private division, plus classes 3A to A Division I, using a points formula. The other classes are seeded in the traditional way, with four playoff qualifiers from each region. Region champions play fourth-place finishers in the first round.
*Regulars: Five schools have made the playoffs every season this century. They are Marist, Peach County, Commerce, Buford and Fitzgerald.
*Missing: Bainbridge has missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Also unusually absent are Pace Academy, Parkview and Troup, teams that had streaks of eight playoff seasons or longer.
*Drought breakers: Gordon Central began the season on a 31-game losing streak but rose to 4-6 under coach Lenny Gregory, who led Collins Hill to a state title with Travis Hunter in 2021. This will be Gordon Central’s first playoff berth since 2012. There are no first-time playoff teams among the 247, but those breaking droughts of 10 seasons or longer also include McNair (2007), Tri-Cities (2012) and Greenville (2014).
*The unexpected: The team given the longest odds of making the playoffs in preseason by the Maxwell Ratings was Chestatee, at 1.8%. The War Eagles of Hall County were 0-10 last season and without a playoff appearance since 2016 but finished 5-5, winning critical games against White County and Greater Atlanta Christian down the stretch. Also given little chance were Gordon Central (3.6%), Woodstock (5.0%), Tri-Cities (5.1%), M.L. King (7.1%), Westside-Augusta (7.3%) and Lakeside-Evans (7.8%).
*History seekers: Thirteen teams that qualified have never won state-playoff games. Only two of them are favored in the first round by the Maxwell Ratings. They are East Forsyth and Ola. East Forsyth is a 4-year-old Forsyth County school playing at Jones County. Ola is a Henry County school that won its first region title this year. Ola is home against Flowery Branch.
*Hardest to pick: The Telfair County-Emanuel County Institute game in Class A Division is the only pure toss-up, per the computer Maxwell Ratings. Two games in Cobb County have one-point projected margins. Valdosta is favored at Walton, and South Gwinnett is an underdog at Hillgrove.
*What’s next: The rounds of 16 in the eight classes will be played next week. Nine 3A-A private teams that had first-round byes this week, including Savannah Christian and Prince Avenue Christian, will enter the fray. The finals are scheduled for Dec. 16-18 (Monday-Wednesday) at Mercedes-Benz.